Predicting Running Injuries: What the Latest Research Tells Us

Running is a beast, great for your health, tough on your body. At Undisputed Performance & Rehab, we’re all about helping you elevate your game without breaking down. But how do you predict when a running injury might sideline you? The latest research gives us some solid clues, and we’re here to break it down, no fluff, just facts.

A 2023 study from the Running Injury Surveillance Centre (RISC) tracked 258 recreational runners for a full year to uncover what drives running-related injuries (RRIs). This isn’t some dusty retrospective guesswork, it’s prospective, real-time data, the kind we trust to cut through the noise. Here’s what they found, and how you can use it to stay ahead of the curve.

The Big Picture: Injuries Are Common, But Predictable

Over half the runners (51%) copped an injury during the study, with the calf taking the biggest hit. That’s no surprise, running hammers your lower legs relentlessly. But the real gold is in the risk factors they pinned down. These aren’t vague theories; they’re measurable red flags you can act on.

• Previous Injury: If you’ve been hurt in the last year, your risk spikes. A dodgy calf or knee doesn’t just heal and forget, it’s a warning sign your body’s still vulnerable.
• Marathon Training: Pushing for that 42km? Runners training for marathons were more likely to get injured. Long distances amplify stress, especially if your baseline isn’t rock-solid.
• Shoe Habits: Changing shoes every 0-3 months was linked to higher injury rates. Stick with what works longer (over 3 months), and your legs might thank you.
• Running Style: Non-rearfoot strikers (think midfoot or forefoot) and those with less knee valgus or more knee rotation showed higher injury odds. How you land matters.

What It Means for You

Let’s get real: predicting injuries isn’t about a crystal ball, it’s about knowing your weak spots. If you’re nodding along thinking, “Yeah, that’s me,” here’s how to turn this into action:

1. Own Your History
   A past injury isn’t just baggage, it’s intel. At Undisputed, we assess your movement and rehab old niggles properly, not just slap a Band-Aid on them. Strengthening that weak link could be your game-changer.
2. Build Smart, Not Hard
   Marathon goals are badass, but don’t rush it. The study screams “baseline matters.” Gradual kilometre increases, paired with strength work, beat reckless overtraining every time.
3. Rethink Your Kicks
   New shoes every few months might feel proactive, but the data says consistency wins. Find a pair that suits your stride and stick with it, your body adapts better that way.
4. Dial in Your Form
   Not everyone’s a rearfoot striker, and that’s fine, until it’s not. Quirky knee angles or strike patterns can load you up wrong. We can analyse your gait and tweak it, keeping you efficient and injury-free.

The Undisputed Edge

Here’s where we step in. Predicting injuries isn’t guesswork, it’s science, and we’ve got the tools to make it work for you. Our physios don’t just treat; we assess, strengthen, and guide you to a higher baseline. Think of it as bulletproofing your body for the long haul.

The RISC study isn’t perfect, kilometres didn’t show a clear link, which might mean it’s more about how you ramp up than raw distance. But it’s a damn good start. Combine that with our hands-on expertise, and you’ve got a playbook to stay in the game.

Take Control Today

Ready to stop reacting and start predicting? Book a session with us at Undisputed Performance & Rehab. We’ll dig into your history, test your movement, and build a plan that keeps you running strong, not sidelined. Because you’re not here to limp along; you’re here to dominate.